Prediction markets have shifted from niche curiosities to leading indicators of geopolitical risk. The Strait of Hormuz scenario exemplifies the violent sentiment swing—where 76.5% confidence in normalized shipping traffic by April's end has cratered to 10% within weeks. This isn't mere volatility; it's the market pricing in escalating conflict.

Oil markets amplify the signal. WTI crude contracts for April 2026 show 76.5% of participants anticipating price surges, with $2.52 million in volume confirming this isn't speculative noise. The crypto market correlation remains tight—when oil convulses, digital assets historically mirror the turbulence.

The data suggests a grim calculus: traders now view April as an inflection point for worsening conditions rather than stabilization. This aligns with recent capital flows into haven assets like BTC and ETH, while altcoins show disproportionate sensitivity to risk-off shifts.